Thoughts on US Elections - T minus 21 days

The election campaign is in the final stretch. The last days have turned out to be more acrimonious than anyone had imagined. The economic news out of Wall Street is scary and is having an expectedly significant influence on the public opinion. Most of the polls have turned to Obama's favor, some (Newsweek) more than others(Rasmussen Tracking). McCain campaign, having been completely taken over by the the exact same elements of the Republican party we thought McCain was not, is increasingly looking desperate. On the other hand Democrats and Obama backers, having seen their fortunes improve in many battleground states, have started talking about a landslide.

It would be premature to pop-out the champagne just yet. The race is far from over. The republicans are frustrated and down, but they are not out yet. They are not going to throw in the towel in the last few days. They have a scortched earth strategy at this stage and are going after Obama will anything and everything. Some of the McCain tactics is tried and tested Republican fare (Accuse Obama of being ultra-liberal, say he will increase taxes, is not 'safe' for America etc). But some of their recent methods have been sleazy and has taken the presidential race to historically low proportions.

It might appear desperate to many but in my view it is a clear, well thought-through end-game by McCain's advisors. I expect the McCain campaign to go all out against Obama in the last weeks of this campaign. McCain will keep pounding on the 'guilt by association' and 'flawed-character' issue.

McCain campaign is hoping that -

1) Democratic complacency dampens Obama supporter turnout on Nov 4 - Obama draws a lot of his support from young voters, who in the past have been unreliable in turning out in large numbers to vote. If the polls predict an Obama win by a wide margin, this block may get complacent and not turn out to vote.

2) Throw enough mud at Obama that eventually something will stick - A lie told thousands of time will seem true to at least some. The Democrats hope that this does not stick in voters minds given the dramatic economic situation in these last days of campaigning. The Democrats probably feel vindicated in this belief having seen Obama's opinion poll lead over McCain only increase in the last week. This may exactly be the error Republicans want them to make. These character attacks may not manisfest themselves on the poll dials immediately. The Republican game-plan is to stroke fires of doubt in people's mind long enough to help them with #3 & #4 below.

3) An external event changes the race - A foriegn policy issue or a terrorist attack will shift focus away from the economy to McCain's strong suite. This taken with doubts created by the incessant attacks on Obama will help turn the tide for McCain.

4) Induce (or accentuate) the Bradley effect - McCain camp wants to keep the Bradley effect in play using the personal attacks on Obama. They want to keep doubts about Obama festering so that voters re-think about voting for Obama. [I personally did not think that Bradley effect was going to be a factor in this election. The election cycle has been going on for far too long that, I feel, most people have started to subconsciously look past Obama's skin-color. I think Obama has cleared a certain 'presidential threshold'.]

Here is what Obama should do to counter McCain's plans -

1) Divert Attention away from McCain's words/actions - Talk about the economy much more - not just to blame Bush (and McCain). Come up with ideas/proposals for various sectors. Bring-up something new every few days and push them enough so it floods the news cycle and divert the attention being paid in the news to McCains attacks on Obama.

2) Be on the offensive - Obama is acting more and more "safe" as he would since he is ahead. He should show the level of aggression/passion that he would if he were trailing. Highlight McCain & Palin's past associations, judgments. This is not likely to dominate the discussion but will act as counter-foil to allegations on Obama.

3) Keep the base energized - Keep the passion up among the rank and file and ensure heavy turn-out.

4) Expect an unfavorable external event - And be prepared to address it.

Wishing Obama pulls this off, for the US and the world.